West Lancashire by-election: Pack away the crystal ball, says Edge Hill University's Paula Keaveney

Former Labour MP Rosie Cooper stood down last year. Cooper’s last election saw her win 52 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives were in second place. This by election then sees Labour defending the seat. Political geeks like me love these contests, a concentrated dose of Politics – all handily in one place. Residents experience more than the usual level of campaigning. Parties mobilise volunteers who travel to congregate in the shopping centres and streets of the area.

But excitement aside, what does it all mean? And what does it specifically mean for our area? Whatever happens, the Government won’t change. The Conservatives don’t need to win this seat to stay in power. Keir Starmer is not relying on a Labour victory here to leap into Number Ten.

It is very rare for the fate of a government to hinge on a by election. What these contests often do is send signals. They give voters a chance to show support or, more usually, anger. Sometimes the message is one of indifference. By election seats can change hands dramatically. But parties often win back their losses later. Ribble Valley for example was dramatically captured by the Liberal Democrats in 1991. The seat returned to the Conservatives in 1992. I well remember dramatic victories in the 1980s and 1990s being used to predict seismic changes in Parliament. These changes rarely happened. Instead, we learned to see by elections for what they are – a handy opinion snapshot but not an overly reliable forecaster.

Media discussions post -result are full of spin. Generally, one party (the one which has won or done a lot better than expected) says “this result means everything”. The other (the loser or the one with the disappointing figures) says “this means nothing”. The truth is somewhere in the middle. We learn something but we don’t suddenly become Mystic Meg. One reason projection is difficult is turnout. Generally fewer people show up in a by election. We’ve had two by elections in the Northwest in the last few months with turnouts of 41 per cent and 26 percent. In the 2019 General Election around 70 percent of the electorate voted in each case. We expect that West Lancashire’s 2019 voting percentage of close to 72 will be lower in the February poll. We can’t say how the missing people this time will vote when every seat is up for grabs andthe complexion of the next Government is being decided.

Another reason not to get carried away is the singular nature of these contests. The decision-making process is different. “Sending a message” can end up being more important than the actual result. At a General Election, the actual result is uppermost in our minds. The parties gear their messages to the situation. The mathematics means that more people lose than win. Every time. If there are six candidates, as in this case, five will lose. Those are the rules.

But losing is not always such bad news. For political parties, there is always an election round the corner. This one will be followed by local elections, will be followed by a General Election and so on. The polls never stop. And while the prize is getting an MP, there are other wins. Some parties will be building support in new areas. Others will be finding new members and generating new enthusiasm. Some will be building towards victory in five, ten, fifteen years time. So most candidates lose and we can’t use the by election to predict. Does it still matter?

In West Lancashire we will get a new MP. Whichever party wins, this will be a new person representing our area. New MPs must set up offices, organise their systems, recruit staff. But they also have to decide how to make their mark and what tops their to-do lists and for new representatives, deciding what matters and what to pursue is vital.

Election geeks like me will already have spotted some themes in the candidates’ campaign material. Transport, housing, health care, policing, the cost-of-living are all there. But setting out an early stall as an MP will involve working out what matters most and what is doable. Our new MP will have a chance to make some of this public early on in his or her time in Parliament. New MPs make a “maiden speech” which gives them the chance to do just this. Rosie Cooper’s speech in 2005 majored almost entirely on the NHS with remarks about hospital provision (or lack of it) in Skelmersdale. We won’t have long to wait to hear our new MP setting out their stall from the green benches.

Will those first debate forays be finger-pointing and anger? Or calm discussions across the floor of the House? I predict a bit of both. Despite the full throated rage we see at Prime Ministers’ Questions, MPs do work with each other regardless of party allegiance. Lancashire, minus West Lancashire, currently has 11 Conservatives and 3 Labour, plus the Speaker who was elected as Labour. Issues don’t neatly stop at constituency borders, so co-operation is often needed. When I ask Lancashire representatives, they tell me that they work cross-party on cross-boundary and County-wide initiatives. Our new MP will have to know where this approach is needed. We have seen, for example, MPs of both colours, including Rosie Cooper, campaigning on rail improvements to better link Ormskirk, Preston and Southport.

So for us in Lancashire, the by election and a new MP could mean some new policy focus, some new partnerships, and some new campaigns. For the rest, better to pack away the crystal ball.

Paula Keaveney is Programme Leader for Politics at Edge Hill University.